Shillong, Feb 27: With the conclusion of the single-phase polling to the 60-member Meghalaya Legislative Assembly on Monday evening, exit polls have come out with predictions on the number of seats the political parties in the state are likely to win.
As per the exit polls available, Conrad K. Sangma led National People’s Party (NPP) will emerge as the single largest party with 20-24 seats and likely to retain the power. But it will not be able to touch the magic figure of 31 seats on its own, meaning that Meghalaya is once again headed for a hung assembly. The closest to NPP will be the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is poised to bag 8-14 seats.
The Meghalaya has a 60-member Assembly, with a party or coalition requiring at least 31 MLAs on their side to get the absolute majority to form the government.
Meghalaya polled for 59 seats on Monday, as polling in Sohiong constituency was deferred to a later date after the death of United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate H. Donkupar Roy Lyngdoh, who died of cardiac arrest on February 20. The election commission is yet to announce the rescheduled date for polling in the constituency.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) had banned exit polls till 7 pm on February 27.
Hub News looked at exit polls by four agencies: India Today-My Axis India, Zee News-Matrize, and Peoples Pulse-Big TV, and TimesNow-ETG.
According to Peoples Pulse-Big TV Exit Poll: the ruling NPP is likely to get 17 – 26 seats, the TMC will get 10 – 14 seats, UDP will get 8 – 12, BJP will get 3 – 8, Congress 3 – 5, VPP 1 – 2, PDF 1 – 2, HSDP 1 – 2, GNC 0 – 1 and others 1 – 2 seats.
Zee News-Matrize is more optimistic for NPP as it has projected 21-26 seats for the Meghalaya-based national party led by Conrad K Sangma, 6-11 for BJP, 8 – 13 for TMC, and 3-6 seats for Congress, and 10-19 seats for others.
India Today-My Axis India has projected NPP to win 18-24 seats, Congress to get 6-12 seats, BJP to get 4-8 seats, Others – 17-29 seats.
TimesNow-ETG has also predicted similar numbers that are consistent with other exit polls. It has predicted 18-26 seats for NPP, 8-14 seats each for TMC and United Democratic Party (UDP), and 3-6 seats for BJP, and the remaining seats for other parties and independents.
However, Exit Polls are not an absolute marker of how many seats the parties will win; however, it provides a general idea on the likely results before the actual results are declared.
Findings and reasoning
Peoples Pulse–Big TV conducted the Exit Poll on February 27 in 15 Assembly segments selected on the basis of Probability proportional Methodology (PPS). Four polling stations selected from each Assembly segment. In each polling station, 20 samples were collected. A total of 1200 samples were chosen such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation.
For the NPP, the exit poll said the biggest factor in favour for the party is its founder (L) PA Sangma, who is still held in high esteem in the state, particularly in Garo Hills. The family continues to be very influential in the Garo Hills. Had corruption not been such an issue, the NPP would have been much more formidable.
The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is a force to be reckoned with 12 MLAs led by former chief minister Dr. Mukul Sangma. Mukul is said to be the second most charismatic leader in Garo Hills after PA Sangma. He speaks many languages and can easily connect with different communities. However, the tag of “outsider” has affected the party’s image and prospects. In addition, it could not make any major inroads into Khasi and Jaintia Hills regions, which have altogether 36 of the state’s 60 seats.
As for BJP, it is still perceived as an anti-Christian party in a Christian-majority state, which is working against it. Candidates will win based on their individual merit and popularity, not because they are with BJP.
The contest is mainly between the NPP and Trinamool Congress in Garo Hills. Unlike in Khasi and Jaintia Hills where the 36 seats invariably will go to multiple parties, as has been the case in past elections.
Overall, the State is once again headed for the fractured mandate or a hung assembly, meaning that post-poll alliances will become a huge part on who will form the government post the declaration of results on March 2.
