Guwahati, Nov 1: Will the familiar winter chill return to the hills and valleys of the Northeast this November?
Not quite, says the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The region is likely to experience warmer-than-usual days and nights, even as October ended with significant rainfall deficits across several northeastern states.
According to the IMD’s Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature for November 2025, most parts of the Northeast — along with the foothills of the Himalayas and sections of southern India — are expected to record above-normal maximum temperatures.
“Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except most parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest & southern peninsular India and the foothills of the Himalayas, where above-normal maximum temperatures are likely” the IMD says.
The forecast attributes this pattern to ongoing La Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase over the Indian Ocean. While La Niña typically brings cooler and wetter weather to parts of India, the weakening IOD has produced mixed climatic outcomes this season.
Despite isolated heavy showers late in October, cumulative rainfall data show that most northeastern states recorded below-normal rainfall during the month.
On October 31 alone, heavy rain was reported in parts of Arunachal Pradesh (6.4 mm, 962% above normal) and Assam (3.2 mm, 171% above normal), triggered by a weak western disturbance and moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal. Still, the IMD classified the region’s overall rainfall status as “deficient.”
Experts note that warmer post-monsoon conditions could influence early winter crops and tea gardens in Assam and Meghalaya, where temperature fluctuations play a key role in leaf dormancy and pest dynamics.
The IMD has also projected above-normal minimum temperatures, meaning warmer nights across most parts of the Northeast, while only northwestern India may experience cooler-than-normal conditions.
The department continues to monitor large-scale oceanic and atmospheric trends under its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting system, which integrates data from global climate centers, including the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS).
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