Guwahati, July 31: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below normal rainfall for many parts of Northeast India during August 2025, even as the country overall is expected to receive above normal showers in the second half of the southwest monsoon season.
According to the outlook issued on July 31, the August–September period is likely to bring normal to above normal rainfall across most regions of India. However, Northeast India and adjoining areas of East India are projected to record a rainfall deficit, raising concerns for agriculture and tea plantations heavily dependent on monsoon showers.
“During the second half of the monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, some isolated regions of central India, and
Southwestern parts of peninsular India, where below normal rainfall is likely,” the report says.
Northeast India is already 46% rainfall-deficient. Meghalaya, the ‘Abode of Clouds,’ has the highest 56% rainfall deficit in the country.
The IMD report also indicated that maximum temperatures in the Northeast are likely to remain above normal during August, while minimum temperatures are expected to stay normal to above normal.
At present, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to turn weakly negative towards the end of the monsoon, both of which could influence rainfall distribution.
The forecast comes amid ongoing concerns in Assam and other northeastern states over erratic rainfall this monsoon, with officials warning of possible stress on crops, tea gardens, and water resources if the deficit persists.
The IMD will issue an updated rainfall forecast for September at the end of August.
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