Shillong, April 21: Meghalaya, known for its lush hills and natural beauty, sits atop a geologically restless region—the Shillong Plateau. Surrounded by major fault lines such as the Dauki Fault, Main Boundary Thrust, and Main Central Thrust, the state is under constant tectonic stress due to the movement of the Indian Plate.
While residents still recall stories of the devastating 1897 Assam earthquake—one of the most powerful in Indian history—the question remains: how likely is another major quake in our lifetime?
A new scientific study led by Aakash Kumar and Needhi Kotoky from the National Institute of Technology Meghalaya, along with Shivang Shekhar from IIT Mandi, suggests the threat is very real. Their research finds a greater than 99% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake hitting the region within the next 100 years.
“On average, strong earthquakes could occur here every 21 years,” says lead researcher Aakash Kumar. “This frequency highlights the urgent need for safer construction and disaster planning, especially in vulnerable urban centres like Shillong.”
First-of-its-Kind Statewide Seismic Study
While Northeast India is a well-known seismic hotspot, detailed hazard assessments focused specifically on Meghalaya have been limited. This study bridges that gap by analysing over 160 years of earthquake data within a 350-kilometre radius of Shillong.
The research team used modern tools to generate seismic hazard maps that show which areas are most prone to strong ground shaking. They also developed a seismotectonic map that reveals the active fault lines and underlying structural weaknesses.
“Districts like Shillong, Nongstoin, Ri-Bhoi, and parts of West Khasi Hills lie in high-risk zones,” says Kumar. “Their proximity to active faults like the Oldham Fault makes them particularly vulnerable.”
If a large quake like the one in 1897 were to strike again, the study estimates that parts of Meghalaya could experience shaking of Intensity XI on the MSK scale—considered extremely severe and capable of widespread destruction.
Urban Vulnerability and Planning Challenges
As urbanisation surges, the risk increases. Older buildings, unregulated construction, and growing population density add to Meghalaya’s seismic vulnerability. The researchers caution that many structures in Shillong may not meet the standards required to withstand a major earthquake.
“Our maps can help local governments identify high-risk zones and develop stricter building regulations accordingly,” Kumar explains.
The team also recommends revising India’s seismic zoning maps and updating the IS building codes to reflect the more detailed, district-level risk information now available for Meghalaya.
A Scientific Roadmap for Safety
In addition to hazard maps, the study includes intensity maps based on past earthquakes to simulate how different regions might shake during future events.
These tools can guide authorities in identifying vulnerable infrastructure and preparing emergency response plans.
“We’re not trying to create panic,” Kumar says. “But we do want people and authorities to understand the risks—and start taking the right steps now, before it’s too late.”
A Wake-Up Call for Meghalaya
This landmark study delivers much-needed, science-backed insights into Meghalaya’s seismic landscape. It urges engineers, planners, and citizens to come together and make the state earthquake-resilient—not tomorrow, but today.
“We now have the data to act,” Kumar concludes. “The question is—are we ready to use it?
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